Lacking Natural Simplicity

Random musings on books, code, and tabletop games.

Mini Six Odds of Hitting a Target Number

I couldn't find anywhere on the net showing the percentage chance of hitting a target number using the Mini Six Wild Die, which just explodes on a 6, unlike the OpenD6 Wild Die, which explodes on a 6, but if a 1 is rolled on the initial roll it instead either removes the highest die rolled or causes a complication, depending on what the GM wants.

I much prefer the Mini Six Wild Die.

So I went off to Anydice.com and came up with the following code:

output [explode d6] named "1M"
loop N over {1..11} {
  X: N+1
  output [explode d6] + Nd6 named "[X]M"
}

If you enter this manually instead of following the “code” link above, remember to click “At Least” to get the right results!

These are labeled “1M”, “2M”, etc., instead of “1D”, “2D”, etc., to emphasize these are Mini Six wild dice probabilities.

Anydice defaults to only exploding twice, BTW. You can change that by adding set "explode depth" to 5 at the beginning of the above code.

(I later found the “Export” view, so I've updated the spreadsheet using that data.)

The Mini Six Wild Die explodes on a 6; unlike the OpenD6 Wild Die a 1 is NOT special.

The blank cells at Target Numbers 6 and 12 are because you can’t roll a 6 or a 12, since those explode again. Not sure why 18 isn’t blank, but if you set “explode depth” to 5 it is blank, along with 24 and 30, but then 36 isn't blank.

The multiple 100s from 6D onward are, after the first, not actually 100s, but 99.x where x is small enough it rounds up to 100.00 when shown with two digits of precision.

The 0.00s that appear from 6D onwards are not 0.00, but numbers so small that they appear as 0.00 when expressed with two digits of precision.

11D and 12D actually extend down several more rows, but to fit everything on one page and since they only show up as 0.00 I’ve omitted that data. (It is in the raw data from Anydice, below.)

Mini Six Odds of Hitting a Target Number

1D

2D

3D

4D

5D

6D

7D

8D

9D

10D

11D

12D

1

100.00

2

83.33

100.00

3

66.67

97.22

100.00

4

50.00

91.67

99.54

100.00

5

33.33

83.33

98.15

99.92

100.00

6

72.22

95.37

99.61

99.99

100.00

7

16.67

58.33

90.74

98.84

99.92

100.00

100.00

8

13.89

44.44

83.80

97.30

99.73

99.98

100.00

100.00

9

11.11

32.87

74.54

94.60

99.28

99.94

100.00

100.00

100.00

10

8.33

23.61

63.81

90.35

98.38

99.82

99.99

100.00

100.00

100.00

11

5.56

16.67

52.47

84.40

96.77

99.55

99.96

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

12

12.04

41.36

76.79

94.19

99.01

99.88

99.99

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

13

2.78

9.72

31.33

67.79

90.38

98.04

99.72

99.97

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

14

2.31

7.41

23.23

57.88

85.20

96.45

99.39

99.92

99.99

100.00

100.00

100.00

15

1.85

5.48

17.05

47.79

78.64

94.03

98.80

99.82

99.98

100.00

100.00

100.00

16

1.39

3.94

12.49

38.21

70.83

90.59

97.82

99.62

99.95

100.00

100.00

100.00

17

0.93

2.78

9.21

29.65

62.14

86.00

96.28

99.26

99.89

99.99

100.00

100.00

18

0.46

2.01

6.89

22.44

53.02

80.23

94.02

98.65

99.77

99.97

100.00

100.00

19

1.62

5.22

16.70

43.96

73.37

90.89

97.67

99.54

99.93

99.99

100.00

20

1.16

3.87

12.35

35.45

65.63

86.78

96.20

99.16

99.85

99.98

100.00

21

0.77

2.83

9.12

27.86

57.34

81.64

94.10

98.54

99.71

99.96

99.99

22

0.46

2.04

6.75

21.41

48.88

75.53

91.24

97.58

99.47

99.91

99.99

23

0.23

1.47

5.01

16.17

40.64

68.57

87.52

96.19

99.08

99.82

99.97

24

0.08

1.04

3.72

12.06

32.98

61.01

82.91

94.23

98.46

99.67

99.94

25

0.72

2.75

8.94

26.15

53.14

77.41

91.61

97.54

99.42

99.89

26

0.45

2.00

6.62

20.31

45.27

71.11

88.23

96.22

99.02

99.79

27

0.26

1.43

4.89

15.51

37.72

64.19

84.05

94.40

98.41

99.63

28

0.13

1.00

3.61

11.68

30.74

56.87

79.06

91.98

97.53

99.38

29

0.05

0.68

2.65

8.71

24.55

49.41

73.34

88.89

96.28

98.98

30

0.01

0.44

1.93

6.46

19.22

42.07

66.98

85.09

94.58

98.39

31

0.27

1.38

4.77

14.81

35.11

60.18

80.55

92.35

97.54

32

0.15

0.97

3.51

11.24

28.72

53.13

75.31

89.52

96.36

33

0.08

0.66

2.57

8.44

23.05

46.06

69.46

86.04

94.78

34

0.03

0.44

1.87

6.29

18.17

39.20

63.13

81.88

92.72

35

0.01

0.27

1.34

4.65

14.09

32.75

56.48

77.07

90.11

36

0.00

0.16

0.94

3.42

10.78

26.87

49.72

71.67

86.91

37

0.09

0.65

2.50

8.14

21.65

43.03

65.77

83.09

38

0.05

0.43

1.81

6.09

17.16

36.61

59.52

78.66

39

0.02

0.28

1.30

4.52

13.39

30.62

53.07

73.66

40

0.01

0.17

0.92

3.33

10.30

25.17

46.60

68.16

41

0.00

0.10

0.63

2.43

7.82

20.35

40.27

62.28

42

0.00

0.05

0.43

1.76

5.88

16.20

34.25

56.15

43

0.03

0.28

1.26

4.38

12.70

28.66

49.91

44

0.01

0.18

0.89

3.23

9.82

23.61

43.73

45

0.01

0.11

0.62

2.37

7.50

19.14

37.74

46

0.00

0.06

0.42

1.72

5.66

15.29

32.09

47

0.00

0.03

0.28

1.23

4.23

12.04

26.87

48

0.00

0.02

0.18

0.88

3.14

9.35

22.16

49

0.01

0.11

0.61

2.30

7.18

18.02

50

0.00

0.07

0.42

1.67

5.44

14.43

51

0.00

0.04

0.28

1.20

4.08

11.41

52

0.00

0.02

0.18

0.86

3.03

8.90

53

0.00

0.01

0.12

0.60

2.23

6.85

54

0.00

0.00

0.07

0.41

1.63

5.22

55

0.00

0.04

0.28

1.18

3.93

56

0.00

0.02

0.19

0.84

2.93

57

0.00

0.01

0.12

0.59

2.17

58

0.00

0.01

0.08

0.41

1.58

59

0.00

0.00

0.05

0.28

1.15

60

0.00

0.00

0.03

0.19

0.82

61

0.00

0.02

0.12

0.58

62

0.00

0.01

0.08

0.40

63

0.00

0.00

0.05

0.28

64

0.00

0.00

0.03

0.19

65

0.00

0.00

0.02

0.12

66

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.08

67

0.00

0.01

0.05

68

0.00

0.00

0.03

69

0.00

0.00

0.02

70

0.00

0.00

0.01

71

0.00

0.00

0.01

72

0.00

0.00

0.00

Here's the Open Office spreadsheet, here's the PDF, and here's the raw data from Anydice in CSV format. You can always look at the ReStructuredText source of this page if you want the table in ReStructuredText format — there should be link named "Source" at the beginning of this post if you are visiting the article page (not the index page for the whole blog) what will let you download it.

Perhaps more immediately understandable is this screenshot of the the results in graph mode:

/images/mini-six-odds-of-hitting-a-target-number.png

(Right-clicking the image might give you the option to open the image in a new tab, where you'll see it at full size.)

Last edited: 2021-08-09 12:07:59 EDT

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